A Chat With Cole's Micera on Office and Industrial

Cole Real Estate Investments (“Cole”) is a commercial real estate investment management firm founded in 1979 by Chris Cole. Cole’s investment programs are built on a strategy of acquiring income-producing, singletenant properties that are net leased to creditworthy tenants.

Robert J. Micera is the Chief Investment Officer of Office and Industrial for Cole Real Estate Investments.

HIPP: How do you view the current climate in relation to office and industrial investing today? One year?

MICERA: Current valuations, combined with improving market fundamentals, create a solid buying opportunity that we believe will continue well into 2011. More office and industrial product came to market the last six months of 2010 and we expect volume levels will increase in 2011 based on the following key factors:

»» Sellers, who had been holding off bringing product to market, are now encouraged by the current “compressed cap rate environment” and by the brokerage community to bring their assets to market;

»» The low interest rate environment is facilitating buyers’ ability to acquire quality assets at lower cap rates;

»» More readily available debt, particularly CMBS, is allowing more buyers to return to the market; and

»» A slowly improving economy will allow corporations to grow which should result in increased build-to-suits, saleleasebacks, corporate acquisitions and refinancings, mergers, and expansions – all of which contributes to increased commercial real estate sale activity.

As more commercial product comes to market and diminishes the “2010 scarcity premium,” it would not be surprising to see cap rates stabilize, or even increase, especially if mortgage interest rates continue to increase or remain somewhat volatile. While the overall economy continues to improve and we see more evidence of consistent job growth, companies will consider expansion opportunities. This will lead to an increase in build-to-suits and sale-leasebacks. We have already started to see evidence of this increased build-to-suit activity in 2010. Also, manufacturing production has been increasing which means companies are building inventories again to address increased demand.

Read the full interview here.

West Virginia Market Represents High Returns and Stable Demand

An analysis of West Virginia’s most recent demographic data reveals a State that is stable and predictable. The market exhibits the following characteristics:

• The highest rate of home ownership in the nation
• #7 ranking for the percent of population living in the state of birth
• Population growth of 0.6% between April 2000 and July 2009

The slow, steady growth in West Virginia should be viewed not as inhibiting investment but as a variable in one’s market assessment that can be easily quantified. As a net lease investor, this should provide confidence that with careful analysis, any fluctuations in this growth factor should not be enough to jeopardize your investment’s success.

For certain net lease tenants that target lower income households, such as Dollar General, this is especially auspicious. West Virginia’s high rate of home ownership creates a large base of Dollar General’s target demographic that is largely immobile. This strong demand will likely mean continued growth of net leased tenants like Dollar General and similar tenants in the West Virginia Market.

It is no secret there is a scarcity of high quality inventory in primary markets. This is leading to a “downward compression of cap rates across all sectors.” If this trend continues, the strength of these markets will no longer justify the inflated price tags and slim yields of the assets themselves. Opportunistic net lease investors will need to begin looking beyond these supply constrained markets to have any chance of earning a superior risk-adjusted rate of return.

West Virginia net lease investment represents the opportunity to realize property value appreciation while still delivering a secure stream of cash flows. The State benefits from the same creditworthy tenants that make up the nation’s primary markets and West Virginia banks enjoy the eighth highest ROA in the country. For the willing investor, there should be plenty of opportunities that have been overlooked in this thinly traded market.

Industrial Assets – A Shifting Investment Paradigm

It has been estimated that as much as $97 billion will be invested in the US commercial market by global investors in 2011. DTZ, a British-based real estate services firm, stated this represents a 54% increase from their December 2009 prediction. In short, growing confidence in real estate investment will pull investors off the bench – leaving the industrial sector poised to benefit. However, investors scrambling to find viable and profitable net lease investments are running into a short term problem. There is a lack of both current supply and new industrial construction in the pipeline.

Investors want quality, top rated tenants in the strongest urban markets. These investments are increasingly rare. However, “Mission Critical” net lease industrial assets are available - investors may just need to rethink their criteria. These properties often have existing permitted industrial uses, are located in and around quality commercial markets, and provide goods and services unique to their businesses. The real values of these investments are not only the tenant, or even the property, but the permitted use so critical to the nature of the business. Sellers are willing to sign long-term leases at higher returns than current market rates because these properties are so critical. Increasingly, investors are overlooking traditional analytics and considering these investments. With intelligent investment they can provide a highly profitable return.

Another strategy worth a long look is value-added investing. As infill land becomes scarce and land prices rise, this opportunity makes increasingly more sense. According to Marcus & Millichap, last year approximately 30 million square feet of industrial space totaling $2 billion was sold for redevelopment or demolition nationwide.

Value-added investing provides an opportunity for 3^rd party or sale-leaseback owners who are able and willing to renovate or retro-fit their properties. Often these buildings are structurally sound with adequate ceiling heights but need functional changes such as more loading docks, upgrades of fire protection systems, lighting, HVAC, or internal reconfiguration. A quality rehab in the right location can command the same rates as new construction in outlying, less desirable locations. In addition, rehabbed properties in the right location can double their pre-renovation value.

Mature buildings and mature industries provide an opportunity for buyers and sellers to think creatively in making their real estate NNN play.

W. Douglas Wright | Director- Industrial
CALKAIN COMPANIES, INC.

Wild Wild Wawa

As a relative newcomer to the net lease market, Wawa convenient store gas stations are one of the hottest sought after triple net lease investment properties in the market today. With an implied credit rating of BBB- / outlook Stable, most investors understand the credit-worthiness of this privately owned company, which is considered one of the strongest convenient store operators in the country. In 2009, Wawa was ranked No. 55 in Forbes’ America’s Largest Private Companies list. Wawa currently operates more than 570 convenient stores throughout the mid-Atlantic, 270+ of which include gas.

Most Wawa net leases properties offer an investor long-term security and absolutely no management responsibilities in the form of a 20-year primary term nnn ground lease. These ground leases provide additional investment security given the nature of the real estate investment made by Wawa’s real estate team, including the Wawa Engineering and Construction Department which is responsible for the design, engineering and construction of all new stores and remodels. As with any ground lease investment, a landlord should be comforted by the fact that the tenant, in this case Wawa, has made a significant capital investment in the construction of the building, which at the end of the lease will become property of the ground lease owner.

Also driving the demand and value of Wawa triple net lease properties is the strong real estate fundamentals of the property sites. Wawa’s real estate team has specific site select criteria, which focus on key trade area location characteristics. Wawa net lease properties are typically located at signalized corners and out-parcel/pads of shopping centers with good visibility and ingress/egress. Ideal trade area characteristics include adequate population and minimum traffic counts of at least 25,000 vehicles per day. Sites should be located on high-volume intersections near other commercial traffic generators.

Pros

• Implied BBB- credit; investment grade
• Strong real estate fundamentals
• NNN ground lease structure

Cons

• Private company
• Gas pumps raise environmental concerns
• Ground lease provides no depreciation on land

Demand for Discount on Black Friday

Here are some recently released numbers from Nielsen on this years Black Friday:

• 76%s said they will be shopping at department stores
• 55% will shop at supercenters/mass merchandiser stores
• 52% will shop at electronics stores
• 35% at toy stores
• 23% online
• 22% at dollar stores

The top buys on Black Friday will include apparel (64%), electronics (60%) and toys (47%).

The most interesting thing about these numbers is the percentage of people planning on shopping at dollar stores. Nearly 1/4^th of all shoppers said they plan on doing so. This lends credence to the recent expansion plans by such stores as Dollar General, Dollar Tree and Family Dollar. The demand for discount clearly remains an important feature in today’s retail market.

We asked whether Dollar General’s IPO made sense back in November ’09 in our blog “Does the Market Still Crave Inferior Goods”. A year later it clearly does.

Who is Interested in Zero Transactions?

Typically those interested in zero transactions fall into one of three categories: Distressed Owners, Highly Leveraged Sellers, and 1031 Buyers looking to maximize the amount of cash they refinance out shortly after closing on a transaction.

Distressed owners are entirely interested in burying their former basis into a 1031 exchange replacement property as a means to defer an otherwise crippling tax bill. Zero’s are typically priced at somewhere between 8%-10% of the debt load on the underlying property – making them a cost effective solution.

Foreclosed properties are deemed to have sold for the balance on the debt owed. This is the amount needed to be covered in a new 1031 transaction to defer your gain. In simple terms if you defaulted on a $10Mil loan, you’ll need to replace that property with a new $10Mil property. Generally speaking that would cost between $800K and $1Mil. Compared to your potential tax bill a zero transaction could produce a savings of close to 50%.

A person in the second group (highly leveraged sellers) is in a similar situation. Their property is sold, albeit in an orderly transaction, but ultimately because they borrowed so much relative to the sales price they walk away from closing with very little money. Sometimes not enough to pay the tax bill. Once again, the zero provides a low cost way to defer the tax consequences.

The third and probably smallest group consists of 1031 buyers looking to use a structure commonly found in zero’s called “Paydown-Readvance”.

The “paydown” part involves dedicating all equity from your old property to the transaction (this is still a 1031 fundamentally). After the deal closes you “readvance” or draw on the loan to the point where only the minimum required equity remains in the deal. This allows a 1031 buyer to walk away from the closing table with extra cash. The downside is that you are left with a 20 year investment you can’t refinance and a property that doesn’t produce cash flow.

A Decade of Deferrals

According to the IRS, in 2002 individuals entered into 143,184 1031 exchanges. By 2005 that number had peaked to 283,560. Everyone can guess what happened next. The market dropped - dragging investments down with it. As a result, anywhere between 59,192 and 78,923 exchanges were estimated to be performed by individuals in 2008. However, it’s likely we’ve already returned to 2002 level numbers.

Institutional investors and traditional buy-and-hold investors believe the market is improving- thus, why "sell in a soft market?". However, clients with low-basis property that have certain events (death, retirement, financial distress) trigger property sales are opting to conduct like-kind exchanges. The natural processes of the life cycle along with an improving market have forced many investors out of the trenches.

An example would be an apartment building investor retiring to Florida and swapping out of an Arlington Apartment building and buying a Walgreens NNN lease as replacement property. The client gets cashflow without the "toilets, tenants, and trash". The market may not be perfect – but time waits for no one. Many of the baby boomers who could afford to wait just a few years ago are acknowledging and accepting current realities.

Another interesting and timely example are landowners selling to energy companies drilling on their property. This low-basis acreage with no depreciation benefits is great fuel for an income-producing commercial replacement property whether it be retail, industrial, or office. These clients often do not know that their land is "like-kind" with commercial real estate, and they do not know that passive real estate investments are out there that they do not have to actively manage.

Clients should really try to plan for both capital gains events and estate events. Unfortunately too much attention is put on deductions, current income, and economics of deal. Investors now face 25-50% in capital gains taxes upon disposition and upwards of 45-55% in estate taxes. This level of taxation will erode a substantial amount of the cash you will net from an investment when attempting to build real wealth.