Wednesday, July 21, 2010

Looking Back: NNN Cap Rates


Back in May we did a story dealing with the possibility of net lease cap rate compression based off a Wall Street Journal article.

Specifically, the article said: “in recent months, cap rates have been falling because property prices nationally are rebounding. More investors are going after fewer high-quality properties, driving prices up.”

Now that we are a few months advanced, how does this statement stand up?

Certain areas and products have certainly seen cap rate compression. Highly trafficked urban areas such as the Washington DC metro area and popular tenants like Walgreens and CVS are exemplars of this. However, on average the trend has been more towards stabilization.

Our own cap rate report, released in late June, has net lease retail cap rates at 8.10%; a slight increase from 8.00% in the fall of 2009. Real Capital Analytics confirmed our current estimates in their 1Q Single Tenant Retail report by also citing a current average of 8.10%. They differed slightly in their 4Q 2009 averages, highlighting a rate of 7.7%. Nonetheless, a similar trend is projected. Cap rates have increased slightly but at a much reduced pace from what was seen earlier.

Though we are not experiencing overall cap rate compression the areas and products which are succeeding represent great investment opportunities. Furthermore, cap rate stabilization points to a secure market that is more attractive to investors.

Thursday, July 15, 2010

Gordon Whiting on the Industrial Market


Gordon Whiting, founder and Senior Portfolio Manager of Angelo, Gordon's net lease real estate strategy, gave us his input on the industrial market:

1. What is your opinion of the industrial market today?

The strength of the industrial market today is still market specific and varies depending on the location and type of industrial asset. In general the bid and the ask spread has compressed and sellers have much more realistic valuations. In the single tenant triple net lease market, particularly in the less than investment grade area, where we specialize, initial cap rates are still double digit with annual rental increases. Those increases are usually tied to the increase in CPI and most times have a minimum rental increase. I believe that now is a good time to buy these assets and it is also a good time for sellers to sell. Mortgage financing has loosened up and that is a helpful market dynamic.

2. What are some current developments that should be watched?

I would watch how companies try and refinance the $360 billion of bank debt and high yield bond maturities that come due between now and 2012. It may be difficult for many non-investment grade companies which are highly levered to refinance this debt and that could cause them to sell their corporate owned real estate and lease it back in order to pay off their debt. This has caused the negotiating power to shift back to the buyers. I see this possibly continuing through 2014 as there is over $1.1 trillion of leveraged loans and high yield bonds that mature between now and 2014.*

3. Where do you see the market in 6 months? A year?

I see the market in the same place in 6 months or a year. I see it as a good time to buy real estate and a good time for sellers to sell in order to generate capital to pay off debt that is maturing, if they don’t have access to the capital markets. Many middle market companies still don’t have access to the capital markets and this is a good way for them to monetize the capital that they have trapped in bricks and mortar.

4. What role are net leases playing in the market?

Net leases or really sale leasebacks play an important role in the market and I believe that role will continue to grow as companies turn to the real estate that they own in order to generate capital. It is also a good time to be an investor in net leased real estate as prices are lower than they have been in many years, cap rates are up and they provide steady current income with the possibility for long term capital gains.

5. Where would you invest in the industrial market today?

Definitely in the less than investment grade single tenant triple net lease market. If you do your real estate and credit underwriting properly and have a long term lease given the double digit cap rates and rental increases today you will have a very attractive investment. It has high current cash flow, tax shield from depreciation for individuals, positive option value from either credit or market improvement and a built in hedge against inflation, particularly if your rental increases are tied to the increase in CPI. Now is the time to invest!

*Morgan Stanley, “How the Tight Credit market is Augmenting the Investment Opportunity for Private Debt Capital”, May 2009


Gordon J. Whiting joined Angelo, Gordon in 2004 and is the founder and Senior Portfolio Manager of the firm's net lease real estate strategy.

Thursday, July 8, 2010

Industrial Sector Life Signs


The industrial sector, which has been dormant as manufacturing plummeted, may be showing signs of vitality. A recent CIRE article pointed out many positive developments and industry insiders consider this a hot topic. With net leases becoming ever more popular within the industrial sector; NNN investors could have access to a land of opportunity.

Here are some highlights from the CIRE piece:

• Investment activity and user sales increased approximately 35 percent and 50 percent respectively from 1Q09 to 1Q10.

• Capitalization rates climbed from 8.8 percent to 8.9 percent during this period but are expected to tighten as demand picks up.

• Though institutional investors ramped up in the first quarter, private investors and regional owner-users, motivated by the narrowing bid/ask gap, still accounted for the majority of transactions.

• In smaller markets, owner-users are grabbing up vacant 25,000- to 300,000-square-foot industrial properties to accommodate the 45,000 manufacturing positions that employers added in the first quarter.

• In markets where institutional investors are active, there’s a flight to quality.

• Distressed industrial properties remain rare due to the unique nature of the asset. As of 4Q09, industrial properties represented only 3 percent of the $172 billion in total troubled assets, according to Real Capital Analytics.

These signs point to an industry ready to shake off the coils of inactivity. Investors who want to diversify or simply take advantage of a positive trend should find this an attractive refuge. The current in all areas seems to point to higher quality and this often correlates to net lease properties. As more demand enters the industrial sector, net leases could see a corresponding rise.

Numerous meetings, with various net lease institutional buyers, have conveyed that the industrial sector is high on the list of where investors are looking to place capital. It would be of no surprise if there were a number of larger net lease industrial transactions announced during the summer months.

Wednesday, June 30, 2010

Should We Fuss About FASB?

Recently, there has been some gnashing of teeth about the possible impact on sale-leasebacks by a proposed change in the manner in which leases are accounted for under GAAP. FASB has put forward some changes which, if enacted, will effectively eliminate the distinction between operating and capital leases. For companies such as Walgreens and CVS, who heavily utilize sale-leasebacks, and typically structure the resulting leases as operating leases, this would means billions of dollars of lease liabilities would move from the footnotes to the balance sheet.

While it's true that this change will be a headache for the accounting departments of both lessors and lesses (not the least of which due to its retroactive nature) it's impact onoverall sale-leaseback activity should be zero.

Here's why:

Sale-Leaseback Economics Don't Change Because of How You Account for Them.

The underlying economics of a sale leaseback need to work independent of how the transaction is accounted for. If the cost of doing the sale lease back isn't exceeded by the return obtained on the proceeds of the transaction than it makes no sense. How we record the debits and credits of such a thing is largely irrelevant.

It’s also not like operating leases are a secret on Wall Street. Analysts and those who follow these companies closely have already baked the operating leases into the debt loads of the companies. It’s common practice to take as much as 2/3 of the operating leases listed in the footnotes into consideration when conducting ratio analysis and comparing companies.

That being said, moving the obligations from the footnotes to the balance sheet is essentially a smoke and mirrors exercise although one would have to admit it does enhance transparency. Particularly so for companies who use the practice as a matter of course. It’s amazing how often you hear that Walgreens has no debt. Apparently, those who think so don’t read the footnotes.

While rationally, this change should be a non-issue to the investors in and conductors of sale-leasebacks, no one ever said people were required to act rationally....

Wednesday, June 23, 2010

2010 Cap Rate Report


“Are we there yet? Are we there yet? Are we there yet?”

- Bart Simpson

Are we there yet? No, but the steady rise of cap rates in 2009, born of the recession, bail-outs, defaults, and fall in consumer confidence has given way to a modest stabilization as financial indicators have subtly improved in the first quarter of 2010. Across the country, decreased transaction volume brought on by a still conservative lending environment and the impact of the recession in all but a few standout markets has prevented a true return to normalcy. Those factors have also turned investors towards key primary markets where real estate fundamentals remain strong, the impact of the recession is less severe and debt placement more readily available. Cap rates in these select primary markets have stabilized and even dropped to an extent as the influx of investors from across the country has led to a scarcity of quality inventory. The net result of the transaction volume in these primary markets is a modest downward compression of cap rates across all sectors.

Net lease investments continue to represent a large portion of the transactions taking place, proving that there is a significant flight to quality as buyers seek out properties with strong credit tenants. Single-tenant net lease retail properties, priced between $1M and $10M, have become the sweet spot for many investors and 1031 buyers. A quick analysis of these types of transactions points to the possibility of 2010 being a plateau year with potential cap rate compression coming in 2011. Today, most net lease properties have been trading at cap rates between 6.50% – 8.75%.

For more, check out our full report.

Thursday, June 17, 2010

Zero Hour for Net Leases

It is not a secret that many commercial real estate loans stand on shaky foundations. In-fact it has been recently estimated that a “sizable amount of the additional $700 billion in commercial real estate loans coming due during that time frame are loans that could not get refinanced at existing levels in the current lending environment”. This of course will lead to many foreclosures and create an investment opportunity for CRE buyers. However, for the unfortunate holder of the original asset there may be a potentially huge tax consequence. There may also be a glimmer of hope in the form of a Zero-transaction.

Simply speaking a zero transaction is the acquisition of a property using a highly leveraged loan (loan to value usually 88% plus) with all rental income dedicated towards debt service, thus producing “zero income” for the property owner. One of the vehicle’s applications is to defer tax liabilities incurred in a commercial foreclosure.

The Problem

Though it is not widely known, the foreclosure of a commercial property is often a taxable event. How the IRS computes the tax depends on whether the property was financed with a recourse or non-recourse loan. In the case of a recourse loan, tax liability is calculated by taking the difference between a property’s fair market value and its adjusted basis. The tax liability of a non-recourse loan (which the remainder of this piece will be dealing with) is calculated by taking the difference between a property’s outstanding mortgage balance and the property’s adjusted tax basis.

The “outstanding mortgage balance” is the key element which catches investors off guard.

For example:

Let’s say you bought a property for $5M (your cost basis) which subsequently has been depreciated to an adjusted tax basis of $3M. Let’s also say you refinanced this property during an upsurge in the market and pulled out $8M of equity. If this transaction was foreclosed upon (without any action to defer tax liabilities), you would face a taxable gain of $5M, i.e. the $8M in outstanding mortgage amount minus the $3M in adjusted tax basis.

Thus, investors who think returning the keys to the bank absolves them of all monetary concern involved in a commercial foreclosure are gravely mistaken. The IRS views any money previously pulled from a property via loan refinancing to be taxable gain, even though the property is foreclosed upon.

The Solution

With proper scheduling and use of the 1031 exchange, the situation above can be avoided through the purchase of a “zero income” property. The reason a zero income property can be so beneficial is due to its highly leveraged nature and its ability to defer a taxable gain through a 1031 transaction. A portion of the money an investor would have otherwise paid to the IRS can be used instead to acquire the zero income property through the 1031 exchange.

Here is how our previous example would be impacted by a zero transaction:

Assuming a tax rate of 25% (Federal capital gains rates, Federal recapture rates and state taxes), the $5M in gain would cost $1.25M in taxes. If instead, a zero transaction was pursued, the investor would need to replace the balance of the debt, $8M. By exchanging into a zero income property for approximately 10% of the $8M debt amount replaced ($800,000), there would be a $450,000 savings ($1.25M-$800,000) and the investor would own NNN property with a very high credit tenant.

In order for the transaction to flow smoothly, it will have to be properly organized and scheduled on an individual basis. It should be noted that a zero transaction is not possible without outside assistance of at least a Qualified Intermediary and qualified professional tax and accounting advice. If done properly, this strategy can be an invaluable tool for investors caught in a foreclosure situation.

Friday, June 11, 2010

Drug Store Wars


Recent developments concerning Walgreens and CVS point to changes in their stores and company interactions. These range from alterations in store layout and product offerings to new rules concerning prescriptions. Both of these tenants are huge players in the net lease market and these shifts could change the way investors view them.

CVS to Expand Grocery Aisles

CVS plans to expand grocery aisles in 3,000 of their stores during 2010. They will be doubled in size, giving the company more exposure to the trillion dollar U.S. food market. Many see this as continuation of “channel blurring”, a trend which has been embraced by many retailers. As reported by the Patriot Ledger “Just as supermarkets have expanded pharmacy and health and beauty sections in the past decade, drugstores are retaliating by putting food products in the forefront.” Cleary CVS is jumping in head first by modifying 43% of their 7,000 nationwide stores.

Walgreens to Sell Beer and Wine Again

Walgreens is breaking a nearly 15 year self-imposed ban on the sale of alcohol in their stores by reintroducing beer and wine. So far 3,100 (41.3%) of their stores have already been stocked, with plans to increase that number to 5,000 by years end. Previously the sale of alcohol and other spirits made up 10% of Walgreens total sales, indicating a likely increase in sales this year. Other drugstores such as CVS and Rite Aid have continually sold alcohol. It is available in 4,300 (61.4%) of CVS stores and 28 of the 31 states Rite Aid operates.

CVS to Exclude Walgreens from Retail Pharmacy Network

CVS Caremark has stated it will end their retail pharmacy partnership with Walgreens in roughly 30 days. This occurred in response to Walgreens announcement that it will no longer participate in new CVS managed prescription drug plans. Thus, the pharmacy networks of the two will become mutually exclusive forcing customers to one or the other. This certainly heightens the competition for customers between the two and could increase marketing to that effect.

Looking at the situation from an investor’s standpoint, the first two changes are certainly positive. CVS expanding their food section is in line with a nascent trend of frugality and “back to basics” purchase behavior. Walgreens on the other hand is opening itself up to the conclusively popular trade in alcohol which should only benefit their store revenues. The only trend which could be perceived as worrisome is the segregation of prescription customers. Forcing an exclusive choice could lead to higher costs to maintain and attract new customers. However, such fears maybe overblown. A little competition never hurt anyone.